A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
